Multi-model Ensemble Prediction System at INM
José A. Garcia-Moya, Alfons Callado, Carlos Santos,
Daniel Santos, Juan Simarro
Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia, Spain
Abstract
The forecast of extreme mesoscale events have an increased interest of the general public. Mesoscale models have problems to deal with such events because their predictability is very low even in the short-range. In such environment, probabilistic forecast can help to address the issue. Multi-model ensemble prediction systems are showing to be very useful to add some probabilistic value to the mesoscale deterministic models. At INM (the Spanish Meteorological Service) we’re setting up a multi-model ensemble prediction system focused on weather forecast up to 72 hours. The presentation will show the status of the system and results from the preliminary verification exercises.